Gauteng’s Covid-19 peak could hit sooner than expected
It is now only a matter of time before Gauteng reaches its Covid-19 infections peak, which was initially predicted to hit between August and September.
The province is now the country’s epicentre of the virus and is expected to require approximately 11,000 ICU beds, but an expert believes Covid-19 related deaths should begin to spike within a week’s time.
Gauteng had recently taken over the Western Cape as the leading province with Covid-19 infections, standing at 117,895 confirmed cases as of Thursday evening, increasing by 5,181 cases since Wednesday.
On Friday afternoon Gauteng health MEC Dr Bandile Masuku provided an update from the provincial coronavirus command council, where he said in comparison to the national figures, Gauteng accounted for 36% of active cases and 46% confirmed cases of Covid-19.
READ MORE: Booze ban welcomed as Gauteng approaches infection peak – Health MEC
He said the province was recording between 4,800 to 5,000 daily cases and that more effort would be put in place to stop or reduce transmissions and disrupt the spread of the disease.
The Western Cape increased by 1,430 cases from 81,556 cases on Wednesday to 82,986 on Thursday evening.
But while the Western Cape was still leading the death toll of 2,514 deaths, Gauteng’s current toll of 853 deaths would soar in the coming week, unless the province somehow finds a treatment to lower mortality rate, said Wits School of Governance Professor Alex van den Heever.
“In Gauteng, the curve is steep and we will see the deaths in a week from now which will rise to levels significantly higher to the Western Cape, unless in this period there is a treatment coming out to lower the mortality rate.”
“If it follows the Western Cape’s trend, the period of having three times the level of new infections will introduce three times the death rate with a ten-day lag. We had enough time to propose a prevention strategy but whatever is implemented is too weak for the strength of the pandemic. [Gauteng government] needed to be more vigorous,” Van den Heever said.
He suggested Gauteng emulate the Western Cape’s prevention strategy of community tracing and testing in focused hotspot areas. According to Masuku, the province’s hotspot areas include informal settlements, CBDs of Tshwane, Johannesburg, Hillbrow and areas such as Alexandra, Diepsloot and Zandspruit.
“You don’t have to test everyone but understand that this area is at risk. Try to screen if you can’t test. Switch to testing frontline workers and prioritise them as they are the protection of the health services, but without neglecting the hotspot areas. I don’t have a sense in Gauteng that they are intensively focused on separating the infected and uninfected and I don’t think we are good with dealing with social places which are high risk and how to manage them,” Van den Heever said.
The only way to get through the wave of infections was by a smooth-running hospital bed management system, as the province only had a total of 8,730 acute and critical care/ICU beds in the public and private sector, Masuku said in a webinar hosted by the Daily Maverick on Thursday.
Masuku said the system, which has a data-driven, 24-hour dashboard, would lessen the panic as it would manage the traffic and flow of patients. Covid-19 patients would be directed to any hospital which had an available bed based on a partnership between the private and public sector, he said.
“We have now evolved beyond the issue to have a bed management team, which is daily monitoring where the empty beds would be and how to direct traffic and flow of patients. It is a dedicated system we need to put into place. It lessens the panic. When the [emergency services] people know that they have to pick up a patient who is a Covid-19 suspect, they will know that they need to go to a particular area.”
“We have been learning a lot of models and making them better from the Western Cape. We have engaged with the team and officials in the Western Cape in preparation of hospitals and discussions on private and public partnership. The more we master the bed management system, it will be much easier for us to deal with it.”
The MEC was confident that each bed would be fully equipped with the necessary oxygen supply which the province received from gas supplier Afrox. Other related industries would be requested to redirect their oxygen supply to the province’s healthcare system.
“Some of our facilities have the pressure of how the oxygen will be stored. All of that work has been put into place and tanks have been put in, particularly for our field hospital in Nasrec. The most important aspect is that beds must have the capacity.”
– rorisangk@citizen.co.za
For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.