Experts adjust S&P 500 forecasts downward while still expecting a market upswing

Three of Wall Street’s most dependable bullish analysts have conceded that their previous projections for the S&P 500 Index this year were overly optimistic — yet they still anticipate a stock market rally over the next three quarters of 2025.

Strategists from Goldman Sachs Group, Societe Generale, and Yardeni Research kicked off the second quarter by reducing their year-end targets for the benchmark index, acknowledging the market turbulence that caused a 4.6% decline in the first quarter. This marks the second revision for both Goldman and Yardeni within a month.

However, all three firms expect the index to close the year at a higher level than its finish on Monday, with Societe Generale projecting an increase of approximately 14% to 6,400 — a 9% rise for the entire year.

In other words, while these market experts are cautioning against a slowdown — pointing to economic growth and consumer sentiment risks stemming from President Donald Trump’s policies — they are not bracing for a major collapse just yet. In fact, all major strategists tracked by Bloomberg still predict an increase in the S&P 500 by year-end.

“We still believe that the Roaring 2020s scenario will persist throughout the remainder of the decade, as demonstrated thus far, although we are currently facing six to twelve months of increased stagflationary challenges,” wrote Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, in a client note, referencing Trump’s “reign of tariffs.”

Yardeni now anticipates the S&P 500 to conclude the year at 6,000 points, a reduction from his earlier estimate of 6,400. Meanwhile, Goldman’s David Kostin projects the index will finish at around 5,700 points, down from 6,200. Strategists at Societe Generale — Manish Kabra and Charles de Boissezon — have lowered their target to 6,400 from 6,750.

These adjustments come just ahead of the much-anticipated tariff announcement on April 2, when President Donald Trump is expected to unveil reciprocal tariffs on all trade partners. The potential for steep tariffs has already led economists to adjust their expectations for U.S. GDP growth. Bloomberg Economics suggests that in an extreme scenario, a 28 percentage point rise in the average U.S. tariff rate could negatively impact GDP by 4% and increase prices by nearly 2.5%.

Nevertheless, many analysts on Wall Street are still forecasting that the tariffs will only prove to be a minor disruption to the stock market.

“We expect confidence to bounce back by year-end,” stated Societe Generale’s Kabra and de Boissezon. “For the second quarter, we anticipate the S&P 500 to show positive performance, similar to the 2018 tit-for-tat tariffs, despite a challenging ‘Liberation day’ week.”

© 2025 Bloomberg

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