Could Budongo Forest in Uganda Be the Epicenter of the Next Global Pandemic?

Masindi – Just a short distance from Aliyo Sarile’s tobacco farm, the wild expanse of Budongo Forest in Uganda emerges as a verdant barrier of rich canopy and untamed greenery.

Every morning, Aliyo greets the day with the sounds of nature: the harmonious chirping of birds, the calls of chimpanzees above, and the assertive barks of baboons—an everyday soundtrack that feels neither bothersome nor entertaining to him.

However, the forest’s balance has been upset.

Chimpanzees and baboons now often leave their leafy refuge to raid Aliyo’s crops, indulging in his fruits and occasionally trampling his tender tobacco seedlings with their curious hands and feet.

When these wild intruders arrive, Aliyo brandishes a sturdy stick and shouts to reclaim his territory.

“I carefully avoid touching them or their paths, knowing these animals can carry diseases,” he explains.

These unwelcome visits are not random occurrences.

Over a decade ago, spurred by increasing global tobacco demand, local farmers cleared Budongo Forest of its Raphia farinifera palm trees to produce strings for curing, thereby eliminating an essential mineral source for the primates.

This ecological disruption forced the primates to consume bat feces, which, according to a 2024 study in Nature, carries several concerning viruses, including those associated with SARS, a member of the coronavirus family that resulted in COVID-19.

This seemingly innocuous dietary adjustment has paved a potential pathway, as outlined by experts, for harmful bat-borne viruses to leap from wildlife to humans, creating conditions for a catastrophic spillover event in the wake of COVID-19.

Experts warn that rising interactions between humans and primates, driven by forest degradation and overlapping resource needs, foster ideal circumstances for viral spillovers.

A multitude of viruses circulates quietly within the animal kingdom, sometimes crossing species boundaries to infect humans and cause disease.

Historically, deadly outbreaks like the plague, Spanish flu, and COVID-19 originated in animals before spilling into human populations—a phenomenon known as zoonotic spillover.

Ecologists assert that the depletion of these mineral-rich trees, once crucial for primate nourishment, has destabilized the ecosystem and may increase the risk of diseases spilling over to humans.

Uganda stands at a crucial point of viral vulnerability, frequently contending with outbreaks of Marburg, Mpox, and Ebola.

Most recently, the nation has been battling an Ebola outbreak that began in January.

Currently, even though there is no clear threat among the wildlife or human populations near Budongo Forest, vigilance is necessary, according to Dr. Deogratias Sekimpi, a public health expert and technical adviser at the Uganda National Association of Community and Occupational Health, a local NGO.

“The real challenge lies in early detection,” notes Henry Kyobe Bbosa, incident commander at the Ministry of Health, who has supported Uganda’s response to COVID-19, Mpox, and the Ebola Sudan outbreak.

“When an outbreak is confirmed, the response mechanisms activate rapidly.”

In this forest, humans and wildlife consistently vie for the same resources, cultivating opportunities for pathogens to cross species lines.

“People collect water from the ponds in the forest, the same sources that animals use,” explains Simon Peter Ogola, a forest ecologist and research training coordinator at Budongo Conservation Field Station.

The catalysts of new diseases—deforestation, hunting, urbanization, climate change, and industrial agriculture—are well-recognized by scientists, yet the specific mechanisms through which these activities facilitate pathogen transfers between species remain elusive.

In Budongo, the Nature study outlines a clear sequence: rising demand for tobacco cultivation prompted deforestation, which subsequently forced dietary shifts in primates.

Despite a decline in tobacco farming following the 2015 Tobacco Control Act, there has been a noticeable resurgence, with production expected to rise from 32,965 metric tons in 2022 to a projected 35,600 metric tons by 2028.

This growth raises alarm among experts regarding further deforestation.

There are roughly 75,000 tobacco farmers in Uganda.

In 2023, Uganda exported $67.9 million worth of raw tobacco, ranking as the country’s 10th most exported product, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Adule Benon symbolizes a new wave of tobacco farmers, having started his journey in 2023.

To cure his harvest, he sometimes collects wood from the forest, although he also buys strings from the local community.

Adule asserts that tobacco has consistently proven to be more profitable than maize for farmers over time.

Like many others in the area, Adule frequently ventures into the forest for water and firewood, while the forest animals, especially chimpanzees, reciprocate by visiting human settlements.

“Occasionally, I see them in the woods. Other times, they come to enjoy the mangoes growing in my yard,” he shares.

A 2015 study highlighted that significant land-use changes within the Budongo and Bugoma forest reserves have shifted the relationship between local communities and chimpanzees from coexistence to conflict.

As deforestation proceeds, interactions between humans and chimpanzees have surged.

“This dynamic is often riddled with conflict, notably when chimpanzees and baboons enter human areas to compete for mangoes, bananas, and jackfruit with children,” Ogola elucidates.

“We document around 10 attacks annually, primarily involving chimpanzees targeting children under 10.”

*Nakisanze Segawa is a Global Press Journal Reporter-in-Residence based in Kampala, Uganda.

Micheal Ezati Nyakafunjo translated some interviews from Lugbara and Swahili.

*This article was originally published by Global Press Journal, which provides incisive, investigative, and in-depth explanatory reporting on the world’s most pressing issues.