XAU/USD Weekly Forecast – Daily Star

In the XAUUSD forecast from last week, gold continued its downward trend, slipping into the 3200s range. With global tensions easing, particularly concerning tariffs, investors are moving from safe-haven assets to riskier options like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

This week, gold is expected to stabilize ahead of the key FOMC economic event on Wednesday. Let’s analyze the vital pivot levels for buying and selling gold in this XAUUSD weekly forecast for May 5th to May 9th, 2025.

Recap of Last Week’s Forecast

If you acted on last week’s forecast and executed a sell around the $3342-$3353 range, you likely witnessed a decrease exceeding 1500 points in gold.

Moreover, the anticipated buying levels in gold from $3247-$3193 have already resulted in a movement of more than 900 points thus far.

Now, let’s explore the crucial economic events for this week and their potential impact on XAUUSD prices.

Key Economic Events This Week

A variety of significant U.S. economic reports are set to be released this week, all of which could markedly affect XAUUSD.

Monday, May 5, ISM Services PMI:

This index evaluates the economic health of the U.S. services sector. A lower reading may elevate gold prices, suggesting economic weakness, while a stronger report could support the USD, potentially lowering gold prices.

Wednesday, May 7, FOMC Press Conference:

This press conference will follow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy statement. Traders will closely scrutinize any signals regarding interest rate or economic outlook adjustments, as these could induce considerable volatility in the XAUUSD.

Thursday, May 8: Unemployment Claims

This weekly report indicates the number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits. If recession concerns reemerge, a rising figure may signal a weakening labor market, making gold a more attractive safe haven.

Gold HTF Overview

Following two weeks of decline, gold is beginning to show signs of recovery. However, the weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains unfilled and is expected to be completed soon, presenting a significant buying opportunity. The buying zone is identified at $3194-$3168, where bullish momentum is likely to develop, creating an entry point for long positions in gold.

Gold Forecast for May 5th to May 9th

Gold starts this week with bullish momentum, although robust supply zones appear above $3300. Immediate buying levels are noted in the 4-hour timeframe around $3259-$3239, where the 4-hour FVG is located just below the order block, aligning with the value area low of the bearish swing.

A short position on XAUUSD can be established in the range of $3305-$3313, aligning with the Point of Control (POC) level and the 1-hour bearish order block.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

In conclusion, the smart strategy for trading gold involves seeking buying opportunities at higher time frame levels while targeting selling opportunities at lower time frame levels. Mark these levels on your charts for clearer trading direction.

Support Levels

• $3194-$3168 – weekly FVG
• $3259-$3239 – 4h FVG and VAL

Resistance Levels

• $3305-$3313 – 1hr OB and POC