Daily Star: Short-Term Gold Price Outlook
The United States and China, two of the largest economies globally, have successfully resolved a disruptive trade conflict that raised recession concerns and unsettled financial markets. This agreement has strengthened the dollar, leading to heightened bearish sentiment for gold.
This week, gold is on track to hit the projected weekly levels outlined in last week’s forecast, after which a notable upward movement is expected. Let’s analyze the key pivot points for buying and selling gold in this week’s forecast for May 12th to May 16th, 2025.
Key Economic Events of This Week
Several significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week, all of which could greatly affect XAUUSD.
May 13th, Tuesday: Consumer Price Index, or Core CPI
The Core CPI data, which excludes food and energy and reflects the underlying inflation trend, will be closely monitored. A figure that exceeds expectations may drive gold prices lower and bolster the dollar, particularly within the intraday range of $3258 to $3281. Conversely, a weaker reading could trigger a rebound from support levels around $3172–$3080.
May 15th, Thursday: Core PPI (Producer Price Index) & Unemployment Claims
This combined report focuses on producer inflation and the health of the labor market. An increase in PPI numbers may raise inflation fears and curb gold’s decline. Meanwhile, unexpectedly high unemployment claims could boost demand for safe-haven assets, countering short-term bearish tendencies in gold.
May 16th, Friday: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Market participants will evaluate household economic confidence through consumer sentiment. Strong optimism could create a risk-on environment, leading to further price declines, while weak sentiment might intensify recession fears and lift gold from lower support levels.
Gold HTF Overview
The Gold HTF overview remains unchanged from last week, with the asset aiming to target its weekly FVG and experience substantial growth from this point. Numerous equal lows above this FVG make it an ideal entry point for purchases, targeting the $3320 mark as the first profit-taking level.
Gold Forecast for May 12th to May 16th
Gold is showing bearish momentum across all lower time frames, making selling a favorable strategy to pursue and maintain.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the primary selling level is forming at the bearish order block and breaker block between $3258 and $3281. Sellers should anticipate a significant downward movement from this area.
On the 4-hour timeframe, a broader selling opportunity lies within the range of $3304 to $3325, as this area encompasses the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the value area low of the current bearish rally.
The $3172 to $3080 range appears to be the most robust zone for initiating buy trades according to the daily timeframe. This is due to the convergence of the FVG, breaker block, and the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels all aligning in this area.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
In summary, a prudent approach to trading gold is to identify sell opportunities on lower time frames while simultaneously looking for buy opportunities on higher time frames. Mark these levels on your chart for easier trading navigation.
Support Levels
- $3167-$3194 – weekly FVG
- $3172-$3080 – daily breaker block, FVG, and Fibonacci levels
Resistance Levels
- $3304-$3325 – 0.5 Fibonacci level and the value area low
- $3258-$3281 – bearish order block and breaker block