Is GNU at a Crossroads? Insights from Zille and the Presidency

Listen to the podcast on iono.fm here.

You can also access this podcast on iono.fm.

JEREMY MAGGS: In light of Andrew Whitfield’s dismissal by President Ramaphosa and Fikile Mbalula’s prompt invitation for the DA [Democratic Alliance] to, as he stated, pack its bags and leave the GNU [government of national unity], the DA has decided to remain in the coalition, although it is facing rigorous scrutiny over the ANC [African National Congress].

I’m now joined by Helen Zille, federal chair of the DA, to discuss the expected developments this week. Welcome, Helen. The ANC secretary-general has challenged your party to exit the coalition. What is your response?

HELEN ZILLE: The secretary-general is fully aware of the consequences if the DA withdraws from the government. They recognize that such a move would likely lead to a currency collapse, economic downturn, rising unemployment, loss of investment, and potential exclusion from Agoa [African Growth and Opportunity Act]. The DA’s role in the GNU actually protects the nation from these dire scenarios.

When provocation occurs, we must respond adequately. Andrew Whitfield was dismissed unjustly…

While it wasn’t an official government trip, it was a personal travel matter for the DA. He inquired, despite it not being necessary, yet received no response prior to his dismissal.

We are aware that some members in the ANC have behaved in ways that would not be tolerated elsewhere. We had to contemplate an adequate reaction to this situation.

Although dismantling the government and inciting national turmoil might not be the correct response to the removal of a deputy minister, we believe that stepping back from national dialogue is warranted, as it yields no positive outcomes for South Africa and merely serves as a smokescreen for the ANC’s 2026 campaign. Therefore, we will vote against budget allocations for those ministers tied to corruption.

Read:
Rand strengthens on Monday
DA stays in coalition; will boycott dialogue
Ramaphosa indicates he has requested DA to appoint a new deputy minister

JEREMY MAGGS: What challenges will your party face in functioning within the GNU now that you seem to be the de facto opposition in Cabinet?

HELEN ZILLE: From the very start, we have maintained this position, having established a statement of intent under significant pressure from the nation’s Constitution. We devised a viable agreement aimed at protecting smaller parties, yet the ANC has completely ignored it from day one.

Now they claim that our statement of intent signifies a national dialogue. Yes, there is one. However, this dialogue should emerge from a collaboratively negotiated agreement among the involved parties, rather than being a unilateral decision by the ANC, as has often been the case…

The ANC has violated each provision of that statement of intent, increasing the Cabinet size beyond our agreed limits to install more of their party members in prominent roles.

They’ve defied our agreements from the outset, and we refuse to remain complacent. Therefore, we will take on the role of opposition within the government.

JEREMY MAGGS: How effectively can you operate within the frameworks you’ve just described?

HELEN ZILLE: Our ministers are managing their responsibilities effectively, and we will persist in that direction. However, pushing through significant initiatives remains a struggle. We are finalizing an economic rescue plan and will continue our efforts with determination. The ANC is aware of the consequences if they were to expel us or if we withdrew from governance, as the DA symbolizes hope for investors and international observers regarding South Africa. Our presence in the coalition is essential.

They wouldn’t dare expel us; they prefer us to exit so they can shift the blame onto us.

We are dedicated to staying and advocating for our agreement while we remain. We refuse to let this crisis engulf South Africa by withdrawing. Rest assured, we will uphold our rights under the statement of intent since it bears Fikile Mbalula’s signature, which we deem worthless. It raises questions about whether they have even read the document.

Read/listen:
GNU’s first year: Progress compromised by politics
R700m national dialogue backlash: Less talk, more action
South Africa appoints rugby captain and business leaders to national dialogue panel

JEREMY MAGGS: Helen Zille, does your party still consider Cyril Ramaphosa to be the right leader for the GNU, or is your support diminishing?

HELEN ZILLE: From our perspective, no one in the ANC represents effective leadership. Nearly 40% of South Africans chose President Ramaphosa, suggesting they view him as the suitable leader, although we certainly do not.

JEREMY MAGGS: Regarding the leverage you possess, do you feel you’ve misjudged it? What if the ANC continues to function in the GNU without your involvement?

HELEN ZILLE: We have diligently analyzed a potential vote of no confidence against the president and identified around 196 to 197 votes, depending on the decision of one of the smaller parties. To pass a successful motion of no confidence, 201 votes are required in a 400-member Parliament.

We are very close to that threshold, and the president need only upset a few more members for us to hit that mark.

If it were a secret ballot, he would likely be ousted immediately since a significant portion of his party would vote against him. It’s important to note that we are preparing a motion of no confidence. We didn’t judge it appropriate to proceed following the dismissal of a deputy minister, regardless of the reasons given. However, it remains a viable option, and we will always react to infringements appropriately.

JEREMY MAGGS: What specific threshold must be crossed before you implement that motion?

HELEN ZILLE: We cannot foresee the future or anticipate the ANC’s subsequent actions. Nevertheless, the potential for further grievous actions on their part is extensive.

Read: Meet South Africa’s GNU cabinet [July 2024]

JEREMY MAGGS: Thank you, Helen Zille. Let’s continue this discussion. Joining us now is Vincent Magwenya, spokesperson for the Presidency.

Vincent, welcome. Generally, I believe this dispute is harmful to both the government of national unity and South Africa overall. Do you think trust has been lost between the two primary parties in the GNU?

VINCENT MAGWENYA: No, Jeremy. Firstly, good day to you and your audience. I don’t believe trust has been compromised. Over time, I believe the DA will gain a better understanding of government functionalities, particularly the established rules governing Cabinet operations and national executive members.

As this understanding grows, these issues should become less frequent. Sadly, when problems occur, the DA tends to amplify them with threats, which has not deterred the president.

The president continues to feel there is potential for collaboration with the DA within the GNU framework.

Furthermore, it’s crucial for all parties, and especially the DA, to realize that it cannot assume a superior position over others when it comes to governance or the economy.

We are all partners, and everyone must operate within that framework. Nonetheless, the rules are critical and must be followed, regardless of the party affiliation of a national executive member.

JEREMY MAGGS: But Vincent, how can that happen if, as Helen Zille states, the DA plans to act as an opposition within the government?

VINCENT MAGWENYA: This approach is impractical. It’s a type of sloganeering. In reality, effective government functioning demands collaboration. It requires diligence in fulfilling responsibilities assigned to each minister and national executive member.

Insurbordination or defiance of established rules will not be tolerated by the president.

All ministers took an oath of office. To put it plainly, such sentiments are merely slogans. In practice, they will not hold up.

For instance, the president has strongly supported the reforms Minister [Leon] Schreiber is pursuing, which were initiated by Minister [Aaron] Motsoaledi. Minister Schreiber has worked closely with the president on these reforms and has received his support. Thus, constructive cooperation between the president and any ministers he appoints to the national executive is always possible.

Listen/read: Leon Schreiber discusses reasoning behind new ID check fees

JEREMY MAGGS: Vincent, how can President Ramaphosa retain ministers in his Cabinet—who are ANC ministers—facing corruption allegations? This seems to reflect double standards.

VINCENT MAGWENYA: There’s more complexity here than meets the eye, Jeremy, and it requires careful consideration. Many of these matters are still undergoing due processes. For example, regarding individuals identified in the Zondo Report, they are currently disputing its contents.

Any actions taken while processes are ongoing could likely be seen as unfair by those involved.

Read: Legislation to curb state capture is on the horizon

In regards to the Thembi Simelane matter—concerning infringements during her time as mayor of Polokwane—appropriate authority has imposed repercussions. The potential conflict of interest is still under investigation regarding VBS and related issues, which is why the president reassigned her to a different portfolio to prevent conflicts.

Thus, I believe we are conflating multiple issues and using broad terminology instead of judging matters individually and assessing them thoroughly.

Follow Moneyweb for in-depth finance and business updates via WhatsApp here.