Is the Gold Market Shifting Towards a Selling Trend?

The hostilities between Iran and Israel have come to an end due to U.S. mediation. Consequently, safe-haven assets like gold and silver have seen a decline in prices.

Market sentiment for gold has turned towards a sell-off; however, a retracement is expected this week, approaching key levels where traders might look to increase their sell positions. Let’s delve into the essential pivot levels for gold trading in this weekly forecast from June 30th to July 4th, 2025.

Key Economic Events of This Week

This week, multiple significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release, which are likely to impact XAUUSD.

Tue, Jul 1 – Fed Chair Powell Delivers Speech, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings

• Powell’s speech may create volatility; hawkish statements could pressure gold, while dovish remarks might weaken the USD and raise gold values.
• Even though the ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeded predictions, it still indicates contraction, providing limited support for gold.
• Robust employment data from JOLTS job openings could curtail gold’s upward momentum.

Wed, Jul 2 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

A strong showing in ADP employment figures (105K compared to 37K) suggests labor market strength. Renewed expectations for rate hikes may bolster the USD and put pressure on gold.

Thu, Jul 3 – Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI

• A weaker NFP (120K vs. 139K) and slower wage growth (0.3% vs. 0.4%) could benefit gold, suggesting easing labor and inflation pressures.
• Increased unemployment (4.3% vs. 4.2%) further supports this view.
• If the ISM Services PMI exhibits weakness, it could instigate upward momentum in gold, highlighting economic slowdown concerns.

Read more: XAUUSD weekly forecast: Is $3600 the next target for gold?

Gold HTF Overview

As June wraps up, the monthly close may heavily influence July’s gold price direction. The price has already reached the highs of May 2025, with a potential drop to $3122 looming. A negative monthly close could push gold down to $3122, whereas a solid bullish close may test the $3441 level.

XAUUSD 1m chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold Forecast for June 30th to July 4th, 2025

The ideal area to short gold lies between the $3320-3337 range, which acts as the POC, breaker block, and the golden fib level on the 3-hour chart.

XAUUSD 3h chart – Source: Tradingview

The closest level for selling on the 30m gold chart is positioned at $3301-3313. This price has broken through its support and is now acting as resistance.

XAUUSD 30m chart – Source: Tradingview

Considerable buying interest in gold is expected from the $3232-$3202 level, identified as a 4-hour order block and FVG.

XAUUSD 4h chart – Source: Tradingview

Read more: Goldman Sachs abandons recession forecast as Trump pauses tariffs

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

In summary, gold offers potential for both buying and selling opportunities this week. Lower time frames suggest sell signals while higher timelines still favor buying positions.

Resistance Levels

• $3301-3313 – previously support, now resistance
• $3320-3337 – POC, breaker block, and golden fib level

Support Levels

• $3232-$3202 – 4h order block and FVG