Oil Prices Steady as Traders Await Results of Trump-Putin Talks

Oil prices remained steady as investors geared up for a pivotal summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska this Friday. This meeting could potentially lead to significant changes in Russian oil supplies, as Russia ranks among the top oil producers globally.

Putin has stepped up his diplomatic efforts, praising Trump’s initiatives aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the US president moderated expectations for a major breakthrough in the nearly three-year-long war, suggesting there was only a 25% chance that the summit might not succeed.

Any potential changes to Washington’s sanctions on the OPEC+ member might influence global oil flows, which have already been disrupted due to the war and subsequent efforts by the US and allies to limit Moscow’s energy revenue. Following Saudi Arabia, Russia stands as the second-largest crude oil exporter, increasingly reliant on buyers in China and India, who are eager to buy oil at lower than global prices.

Last week, Trump declared a 50% tariff on Indian imports in response to the country’s purchases of Russian crude and considered tightening regulations on the so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers transporting the oil. However, he has avoided targeting China, likely due to fears that such a move could lead to soaring oil prices that would adversely affect US consumers.

On Thursday, Trump warned of “very severe consequences” if Putin did not accept a ceasefire. He expressed hopes of using the summit to pave the way for a “quick second meeting” with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, following pressure from allies to establish such discussions.

“A direct ceasefire appears improbable, but there may be developments regarding US-Russia collaboration and a framework for future negotiations, which could put downward pressure on oil prices,” remarked Zhou Mi, an analyst from a research institute affiliated with Chaos Ternary Futures Co.

This year, oil prices have decreased approximately 10% amid concerns regarding the potential effects of Trump’s trade policies on overall demand, as well as the swift return of OPEC+ barrels. Fears of a record surplus by 2026 are affecting the market, potentially providing Trump with leverage to exert influence over Putin.

No major updates from the discussions starting at 3 p.m. New York time are anticipated before the close of oil trading at 5 p.m. on Friday. Consequently, any price changes are likely to occur when the market reopens on Monday morning in Asia.

The total volume of Brent contracts traded during Asian hours was significantly lower than the daily average, showing that traders are awaiting clearer signals before committing further investments.

Prices:
Brent for October delivery declined 0.2% to $66.68 a barrel at 6:31 a.m. in London. Futures have displayed minimal change this week. WTI for September delivery fell 0.3% to $63.77 a barrel.

© 2025 Bloomberg

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