Buy-the-Dip Strategy Holds Firm Above $3,345

As traders speculate on a Federal Reserve interest rate drop, gold prices have continued to rise at the beginning of September 2025.

This gold price outlook reflects recent data showing that spot gold has hit its highest level in almost four months, at $3,490 per ounce, while staying steady around $3470.

Factors such as a weakened U.S. dollar, falling Treasury yields, and heightened safe-haven demand amid ongoing economic instability have supported the increase in gold prices.

Optimism about a potential early easing of Fed policy has bolstered the positive sentiment for gold. However, investors remain vigilant ahead of critical U.S. economic data this week that may impact the bullish outlook.

As long as gold remains above the $3,345–$3,350 mark, buying on dips is advisable, with a currently optimistic bias. If gold surpasses $3,490, a retest of $3,440 and potentially above $3,500 could be on the horizon.

In this context, let’s review the crucial thresholds for buying and selling gold in the XAUUSD weekly forecast for September 1 to September 5, 2025.

Key Economic Events Influencing Gold Price Predictions

This week, various significant U.S. economic reports are on the agenda, expected to affect XAUUSD.

Sep 2 – ISM Manufacturing PMI

If the PMI exceeds expectations, it may hinder gold’s upward trajectory by showcasing manufacturing strength. Nonetheless, a reading below 50 still indicates contraction, which could favor gold as a safe haven.

Sep 3 – JOLTS Job Openings

A drop in job openings would imply a cooling labor market, enhancing dovish expectations from the Fed and benefiting gold.

Sep 4 – ADP Jobs, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI

A disappointing ADP jobs report would bolster gold as labor markets exhibit signs of weakening. A steady unemployment claims figure of 229K may have a limited effect, while a modestly improved services PMI (50.5 versus 50.1) could exert slight pressure on gold prices.

Sep 5 – NFP, Earnings, Unemployment Rate

If NFP figures are around 74K and unemployment climbs to 4.3%, markets may interpret this as a sign of labor market weakness, which would support gold. However, steady wage growth at 0.3% may trigger inflation concerns and limit potential gains.

Overall Gold Outlook

Data this week suggests a softening labor market and persistent manufacturing weakness, providing a supportive backdrop for gold, although strong wage and services metrics could limit upward movements.

Gold HTF Overview

As noted in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold is nearing its external liquidity level of $3,500, also its historical high, and it is expected that this level could be surpassed this week.

Gold Forecast for September 1st to September 5th, 2025

Upon examining the 1-hour timeframe, the initial buying zone for gold is identified within the golden Fibonacci range and point of control around $3447-$3436.

According to the 4-hour timeframe, the order block at $3416-$3404 signifies the start of the bullish move. Traders should anticipate price retractions from this area, offering potential buying opportunities.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

In summary, this week offers opportunities for both buying and selling gold; however, a buying stance is strongly preferred. Lower timeframes may suggest selling, while higher timeframes consistently advocate for purchasing.

Resistance Levels

• $3416-3404 – 4-hour order block and commencement of the bullish rally

Support Levels

• $3447-$3436 – Point of control and golden Fibonacci zone