Oil Prices Decline as OPEC+ Supply Concerns and U.S. Economic Slowdown Emerge

Oil prices declined for a second straight day as traders voiced worries that OPEC+ may reach an agreement to ramp up production, U.S. data suggested an economic slowdown, and an industry estimate pointed to increasing crude inventories at a significant storage site.

The global benchmark Brent crude was around $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell below $64. Prices plummeted on Wednesday following reports that the OPEC+ coalition was considering another round of production increases at an upcoming policy meeting this weekend. Nevertheless, several delegates mentioned that Saudi Arabia and its allies have not reached a definitive conclusion on the matter.

In the United States, an industry estimate showed that crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub—where WTI contracts are priced—rose by 2.1 million barrels last week. If this is confirmed by official data later today, it would represent the largest increase since March.

This year, Brent oil has fallen by about 10% as OPEC+ rapidly unwound significant output cuts to reclaim market share from rival producers. Simultaneously, non-OPEC+ producers have also boosted their supplies amid escalating concerns about crude demand, especially following numerous trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. These factors have collectively fueled widespread forecasts of oversupply, leading to increased global stockpiles.

“With Brent oil futures trading above $65 a barrel, it is reasonable for OPEC+ to at least consider further production increases,” stated Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He added that the group faces challenges due to typically weaker global refining activities.

In the U.S., recent Federal Reserve data indicated “little or no change” in economic activity across much of the country. Moreover, job openings fell to a ten-month low, further indicating reduced demand for workers amid rising policy uncertainty.

Market signals suggest a loosening of tight market conditions. The prompt spread for Brent—a measure of the difference between its two nearest contracts—was at 45 cents a barrel in backwardation, a significant decline from over $1 just two months ago.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. maintained a pessimistic outlook, predicting that production will outpace consumption. “We expect the current oversupply in oil markets to worsen,” analysts, including Samantha Dart, noted in their commodities report, forecasting Brent prices to drop to the low $50s by late 2026.

U.S. policy concerning Russia, especially ongoing efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine by targeting crude oil shipments, was also under examination. President Donald Trump suggested that further measures might be enacted after penalizing India for purchasing oil from Moscow.

“Approximately 90% of Russia’s exported oil is bought by China and India,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated in a Bloomberg Television interview. “This strategy aims to drastically reduce Russia’s oil export capability, thereby limiting their funding sources for military activities.”

Prices:
Brent for November delivery decreased 0.7% to $67.16 a barrel as of 1:31 p.m. in Singapore. WTI for October delivery fell 0.7% to $63.52 a barrel.

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