Eskom Confirms No Load-Shedding This Winter – Grid Stability Ensured

Johannesburg – Eskom has announced plans to prepare for the 2026 winter season with a strong power system, predicting a winter of continuous energy stability from April 1 to August 31, 2026.

This positive outlook follows a successful summer period during which the national grid demonstrated consistent reliability.

With the Generation Recovery Plan now part of everyday operations, Eskom has shifted from short-term recovery to a phase emphasizing stability and ongoing energy security, ensuring that homes, businesses, and industries remain powered throughout the winter peak months.

This stability is underscored by Eskom’s steady energy supply rate of 98.9% during the last Financial Year (from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026), a significant improvement from a mere 9% two years earlier. This reflects substantial enhancements in generation performance, operational discipline, and system resilience.

“Eskom, and by extension South Africa, now benefits from a stable electricity platform for growth,” stated Eskom’s Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.

“This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as outlined in the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to ensure future energy security.”

“Eskom is actively assessing the new capacity build rate across all essential technologies, as this, along with other socio-economic factors, will be vital in managing the transition of coal-fired power stations.”

The winter outlook suggests improved reliability and availability across the generation fleet.

Additional capacity has been secured, mainly through a 5.2GW reduction in unplanned losses and 1.1GW resulting from demand-side management programs, allowing Eskom to meet the national demand this winter.

Consequently, Eskom expects a surplus peak capacity of about 6GW during the winter period.

These improvements have led Eskom to reduce its base-case assumption for unplanned outages to approximately 12GW, down from 13GW in the previous winter outlook.

Even under high-stress scenarios, where unplanned losses could reach 14GW, the system is projected to remain resilient, with no loadshedding anticipated in the plans being formulated by Eskom.

This Winter 2026 Outlook takes into account Eskom’s growing customer base.

During FY2026, Eskom connected 67,578 new households, and an additional 2,119 households were supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs), easing pressure on the national grid, particularly during peak hours.

Despite providing electricity to these new customers compared to the previous winter, enhanced generation reliability, reduced unplanned losses, and strengthened operational buffers reinforce a stable winter forecast with adequate capacity to meet anticipated demand.

“It was challenging to enforce cost savings while our generation fleet faced instability,” remarked Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.

“Now, we have substantially cut down diesel reliance, saving R26.9 billion compared to FY2023.”

“These savings are due to improved maintenance discipline and execution of projects.”

Nxumalo underscored that every megawatt returned by Eskom contributes to economic progress.

“The restoration of a reliable baseload electricity supply has positioned Eskom to support troubled industries, especially in the ferrochrome sector, playing a crucial role in mitigating job losses,” Nxumalo added.

“The nation has invested in Eskom, and we are actively striving to restore this national asset to its full potential; it is a resource backed by all citizens.”

Sustained performance improvements since March 2023

The stability achieved results directly from the Generation Recovery Plan, which has evidenced consistent, year-on-year enhancements in system performance since March 2023, including:

• Diesel expenditure reduced by R26.9 billion: A reduced dependence on open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) emergency power sources has led to an FY2026 diesel expenditure of about R6.4 billion, which is R26.9 billion less than FY2023 and around R10 billion below FY2025.
• Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improved by approximately 10.8%: The EAF increased from 54.55% in FY2023 to around 65.35% in FY2026, marking an improvement of about 10.8%, which indicates stronger generation reliability and system stability. The EAF reached or surpassed 70% on over 83 occasions during FY26.
• Unplanned losses, reduced by around 7.1GW: The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) measuring unplanned losses fell by around 7.1GW, decreasing from 16.5GW to roughly 9.1GW as of March 31, 2026, a reduction exceeding one-and-a-half times the capacity of Kusile Power Station.
• Planned maintenance increased, averaging 5.4GW: Planned maintenance rose from an average of 4.7GW in FY2023 to peaks of about 8.0GW, with an annual average of 5.4GW in FY2026, enhancing long-term plant reliability while temporarily reducing available capacity.

Together, these improvements have supported a record of 341 consecutive days without loadshedding as of today.

Financial, Governance, and Institutional Strengthening

Ongoing operational enhancements and financial discipline have resulted in Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings upgrading Eskom’s credit rating for the first time in over a decade.

Eskom also reported a 2.1% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit and a 1.6% improvement in EBITDA for FY2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost discipline (pending final audit confirmation).

Eskom’s Board has been revamped with skilled professionals, merging continuity with enhanced technical, financial, and governance capabilities.

The utility was also recognized as a Top Employer for the second consecutive year, highlighting Eskom’s commitment to employee development, capability building, and organizational stability.

Energy security decisions and the path ahead

Since the last Power System Outlook on September 5, 2025, the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 was released on October 28, 2025, by the Minister of Electricity and Energy, providing updated guidance on the optimal electricity supply mix and the timing for new generation capacity.

In line with this policy framework, Eskom’s strategy remains steady, applying a methodical and evidence-based assessment to determine the timely rollout of planned new generation capacity.

This aims to facilitate the orderly shutdown, repowering, and repurposing of five older coal-fired power stations while ensuring security of supply and considerations for a just energy transition. Eskom is expected to finalize this decision around Quarter 2 FY2027 (between July 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026).

This will ensure the security of supply is maintained, current gains are preserved, and the essential capacity for fostering economic growth is secured to enable long-term investment decisions.

Any delays in delivering new capacity pose a significant risk to supply sustainability between 2029 and 2030, as confirmed by the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2025 conducted by the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA).

Eskom also acknowledges that since the IRP2019, only about 50% of the awarded renewable projects with grid allocation and power purchase agreements have been executed, emphasizing the need for stronger coordination to maintain energy security while achieving emissions reduction targets.

By 2030, the new capacity needed requires collaborative delivery by Eskom and Independent Power Producers (IPPs) of around 10.3GW of Solar PV, 7.4GW of Wind, 3.7GW of energy storage, and 6GW of Gas to ensure energy security.

Dispatchable capacity, particularly baseload gas-to-power available continuously, remains vital for the large-scale integration of renewable energy and overall system and network reliability.

As a responsible and efficient system operator, Eskom will continue to operate, maintain, and protect the five coal-fired power stations until new generation capacity is securely contracted and demonstrably available.

Eskom is committed to achieving its Climate Investment Funds target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 71 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2030, pending final confirmation.

Managing the Transition to Net Zero

Eskom has consistently stated that the transition to net-zero is complex and must be driven by technology.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 contains provisions for developing a clean-coal technologies demonstration plant by 2030.

Aligned with this policy, Eskom, in collaboration with key research and industry stakeholders, aims to establish a High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions (HELE) demonstration plant to evaluate cost-effectiveness while supporting the responsible and transitional use of coal.

Eskom is adopting a portfolio-based approach to emissions reduction, with its research and development division reporting promising progress in direct sorbent injection (DSI) trials and ammonia co-firing.

These technologies represent potentially lower-cost pathways for emissions reduction compared to traditional flue gas desulphurization while maintaining system reliability and energy supply security.

Progress in Phasing Out Load Reduction at the Community Level

To build on the current momentum of the phased national program, Eskom stated it is collaborating closely with the Department of Electricity and Energy (DEE) and other relevant stakeholders to expedite the removal of load reduction.

This initiative has already yielded results, with the Northern Cape and Western Cape completely removed from load reduction schedules.

Nationwide, over 340,000 customers who previously experienced load reductions are now free from them, ensuring continuous supply during the winter months.

A crucial aspect of the program involves installing over 600,000 smart meters, which enhance network visibility, improve load management, and stabilize local electricity networks.

Additionally, 2,119 customers have been connected through distributed energy resources (DER) to strengthen electricity supply in areas where network constraints had previously caused load reduction.

By September 2026, Eskom predicts that about 60% of feeders currently affected by load reduction—573 out of 971—will be removed from these schedules, with the remaining feeders being progressively addressed by 2027.

*This article was first published in our sister publication techfinancials.co.za