Private Sector Warnings: South Africa’s Foot-and-Mouth Strategy Faces Potential Failure
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JEREMY MAGGS: South Africa continues to struggle against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and the private sector is issuing a critical warning – the existing vaccination strategy may prove ineffective.
According to FMD Response South Africa, the government’s goal of vaccinating 80% of cattle by December is too slow to achieve herd immunity. This is especially concerning given that vaccine effectiveness may wane after about six months.
The organization argues that a rapid national vaccination campaign is essential to immunize the country’s 14 million cattle within six to eight weeks, with significant participation from the private sector.
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This matter is increasingly vital to food security in South Africa. Joining me now is Andrew Morphew from FMD Response South Africa.
Thank you for being here, Andrew. Your organization claims that the current plan has a 90% to 95% chance of failure. Can you elaborate on why this strategy is mathematically flawed?
ANDREW MORPHEW: Thanks for having me, Jeremy. Our estimate of a 90% to 95% failure rate stems from multiple variables at play.
Many challenges arise from execution, including cold chain distribution, vaccine administration, and the interactions between wildlife and cattle. Each of these aspects is crucial.
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However, one significant factor truly dictates the plan’s success or failure: the timing of the vaccine.
The government is aiming to vaccinate 80% of South Africa’s cattle by December, effectively covering the national herd in a year. Analyzing this strategy reveals where the calculations go awry.
Vaccines provide immunity for only six months, meaning that animals vaccinated in the first month will start losing immunity by the sixth month.
This leads to immunity decreasing as fast as it is established.
Therefore, at any given time, the maximum immunity achieved would be around 35%, while the World Organisation for Animal Health mandates an 80% immunity rate.
This discrepancy – between the achievable 35% and the necessary 80% – undermines the entire plan.
JEREMY MAGGS: Andrew, your suggestion is to vaccinate 14 million cattle in six to eight weeks. Is this realistically achievable for the country?
ANDREW MORPHEW: Yes, the country is capable of executing this plan, Jeremy. While it’s a major task, it’s not insurmountable. Countries like Brazil and Argentina have accomplished even larger vaccination initiatives.
For example, Argentina vaccinated 60 million cattle and effectively contained their outbreak by revisiting the vaccination process in six months.
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They successfully halted the spread of foot-and-mouth disease within 11 months. Achieving this in South Africa is possible if we dedicate ourselves to it.
In terms of logistics, Brazil has faced challenges far more significant than ours, including delivering vaccines to remote locations by air and boat while managing over 100 million cattle. Their success illustrates that it can indeed be done.
In South Africa, we have seen immense productivity; 34 veterinarians vaccinated 50,000 animals in a single day when provided with vaccines. Extrapolating that capacity shows it is truly feasible.
It is essential to mobilize the right resources and ensure vaccines reach the veterinarians quickly and safely for success.
JEREMY MAGGS: It seems the Department of Agriculture is determined to maintain control over vaccine distribution, yet you assert this may lead to failure.
ANDREW MORPHEW: Absolutely, depending on a single supply channel is a recipe for failure. A resilient supply chain must have redundancy; if one supplier fails, alternatives should be readily available.
A mix of private distribution channels is necessary, as veterinarians already manage operational cold chains, enhancing vaccine handling and minimizing risks.
Listen/read: The involvement of the private sector is critical to combatting the FMD outbreak, warn farmers.
Additionally, South Africa’s approach seems fixated on control, framing it as an administrative issue. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina prioritized understanding the biology of the disease and structured their vaccination strategies accordingly.
JEREMY MAGGS: Andrew, do you think farmers are losing faith in the national response and possibly in Minister John Steenhuisen?
ANDREW MORPHEW: We aim to work collaboratively with the minister and the government to address this issue. While we believe a solution is possible, the current plan is faltering.
There have been two recent instances where vaccinated dairy herds contracted the virus from unvaccinated neighboring herds, highlighting our concerns.
Unless we flood areas with vaccines and immunize every animal, the virus will continue to exist.
We are eager to collaborate with the government, confident that through widespread vaccination in strategic phases, we can regain control over the situation.
JEREMY MAGGS: Thank you, Andrew Morphew, spokesperson for FMD Response SA, for your valuable insights.