Gulf Shipping Standoff Affects Africa’s Most At-Risk Farmers

Malawi, a landlocked country bordered by more affluent and more powerful neighbors, has historically faced challenges arising from its geographic and economic context. At present, it is experiencing the immediate fallout from a crisis that is taking place over 3,000 miles away.

With farmers grappling with soaring fuel costs and a dwindling supply of fertilizer, global concerns are rising about the negative impact on agricultural production.

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In African nations, where over half of the 1.3 billion inhabitants rely on agriculture, the vulnerability is shared with certain regions of Asia. Malawi highlights the serious implications for food security.

Small-scale farmers make up the majority of Malawi’s 22 million residents. As they prepare for the planting season, the cost of transporting fertilizer to rural areas is becoming prohibitively high, assuming they can access it at all.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, amidst U.S. and Israeli conflicts with Iran, has disrupted global supplies of fuel and fertilizers.

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“My main concern this year is not just the cost but also the availability,” remarked Yashodan Gharat, Malawi country director at One Acre Fund, a nonprofit organization that assists farmers in 10 African countries. “Everyone will be looking for fertilizer, but will it reach a small market like Malawi? I have my reservations.”

The ongoing conflict has led the United Nations to warn of skyrocketing food prices on a continent already grappling with famine warnings and where governments have limited capacity to intervene.

Africa exhibits lower average fertilizer use compared to regions like Europe, threatening the fertility of its soils, as pointed out by producer Yara International ASA.

Farmers in nations such as Nigeria and Lesotho report they are either forgoing fertilizer or reducing the area they plant. South Africa is projecting its lowest wheat harvest in 12 years as winter planting begins. In Senegal, some are resorting to cheaper alternatives.

“In much of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly where smallholder farmers already utilize minimal fertilizer, any price increase can significantly reduce input usage and further lower already inadequate yields,” observed a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in March. This escalates the risk of “lower harvests, affecting consumption, and driving food price inflation,” they cautioned.

The price of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, urea, has surged by over 90% due to the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Around one-third of global urea exports, along with 20% of ammonia and 20% of phosphate fertilizers, transit through the strait from nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

Nearly 60% of Malawi’s nitrogen fertilizer imports originate from Gulf countries, according to the FAO, making it one of the most fertilizer-dependent nations globally.

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The United States and Iran remain stuck in a standstill regarding the conflict’s resolution and the restoration of maritime passage. However, even if a solution is reached, the recovery of fertilizer shipments might be slow due to maritime congestion and the required time to restart production, according to Ashish Lakhotia, head of agricultural inputs at commodities trader ETG Group.

His company has had orders canceled or redirected, while China restricts exports to ensure domestic supply, he noted.

In West Africa, farmers not only struggle to afford fertilizer as planting season begins but also find sourcing it to be difficult. Gideon Idika, an agricultural support officer helping palm oil, cocoa, and cashew farmers in Nigeria’s Abia State, is particularly worried.

“Farmers are skipping fertilizer because they can’t handle the increased costs, resulting in poor harvests,” said Idika, who also manages a 200-acre palm oil plantation. “The high prices have paved the way for emergency blenders who mix whatever is available and sell it, often low-quality fertilizers.”

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In Senegal, farmers near Thies bemoan rising costs and shrinking availability. “I couldn’t find high-quality fertilizer, so I’m settling for what I can afford instead of what I usually choose,” shared Ngoaye Diop, a vegetable grower.

Across Ghana, many suppliers are struggling to import fertilizer due to shortages and extended delivery times, according to Nana-Aisha Mohammed, regional director for the African Fertiliser and Agribusiness Partnership, a nonprofit focused on improving nutrient access. “We are facing a crisis,” she declared.

The potential consequences are especially severe for Malawi, which has already experienced recurring food shortages due to climatic events like droughts, floods, and cyclones in recent years. Nestled between Zambia, Tanzania, and Mozambique, it ranks as the poorest nation globally that is not in active conflict.

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a global coalition involving UN agencies and the World Bank, 22% of Malawians experienced acute food insecurity between October and March.

A good harvest alleviated some concerns, but escalating fuel prices and dwindling fertilizer availability present significant hurdles.

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Local agricultural organizations expect to be last in line for fertilizer shipments from ports in Mozambique and South Africa. In the event of shortages, supplies may be directed to wealthier buyers who are more convenient to serve.

For shipments that do manage to arrive, the increased prices may hinder Malawi’s ability to maintain or expand subsidies for its predominantly subsistence farming community. The government has been in discussions with creditors over a $13 billion debt since 2022.

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Fuel lines are growing longer, even as prices exceed $3.50 a liter for both diesel and gasoline. The government is liquidating gold reserves to fund fuel imports and has requested emergency assistance from the World Bank.

“It’s incredible when you consider that Malawi is among the poorest nations globally, heavily reliant on imports, the majority of which come by road,” remarked Grace Jackson, Malawi country director at GiveDirectly, a nonprofit that connects donor contributions to low-income individuals.

“The food security outlook for Malawi next year appears quite dire. We could see millions facing extreme hunger levels.”

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