Multicoin Capital Backs $319 HYPE Target Despite Major Risk Warnings

Multicoin Capital predicts that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could reach $319 by 2028. However, the firm has identified multiple structural and market risks that may threaten its long-term outlook.

A recent report from Multicoin Capital indicates that Hyperliquid (HYPE) could increase nearly fivefold from its current price of around $64. This scenario is based on Hyperliquid achieving approximately $8 billion in annual earnings by 2028, leading to a 20-times earnings ratio.

Multicoin disclosed that it began acquiring HYPE in February, establishing a significant position in its liquid fund while enforcing a three-day no-trade policy after the report’s release.

Factors Fueling Multicoin’s Confidence in Hyperliquid Valuation

Much of the firm’s optimism stems from Hyperliquid’s rapid growth in 2025. Multicoin reported that the decentralized exchange achieved around $873 million in revenue from roughly $2.9 trillion in trading volume, significantly boosting its user base from approximately 301,000 to 923,000. During this time, open interest soared from nearly $2 billion to $6 billion.

Current market data cited in the report shows that Hyperliquid now accounts for over 59% of decentralized perpetual futures open interest, with total open interest climbing to about $9.6 billion, surpassing the combined open interest of its leading on-chain competitors.

Besides the decentralized markets, Multicoin asserted that Hyperliquid is effectively closing the gap with centralized exchanges. Monthly perpetual futures trading volume has reached roughly 17% of Binance’s, with open interest at about 21% of Binance’s, mirroring Binance’s early growth trajectory.

Another crucial element of the investment rationale is HIP-3, an upgrade that allows third-party teams to create perpetual markets tied to assets such as stocks, commodities, and equity indexes.

According to Multicoin, open interest linked to real-world assets has already surpassed $2.9 billion, with an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract achieving more than $100 million in average daily trading volume in its debut week.

The report also anticipates that options trading, prediction markets, portfolio margining, and deeper integration with HyperEVM applications will broaden Hyperliquid’s revenue potential in the upcoming years. Multicoin argued these developments could evolve the platform into what it terms an “everything exchange,” offering year-round access to various asset classes.

Challenges That May Affect the $319 Forecast

Despite the favorable outlook, Multicoin acknowledged several factors that could hinder its predictions. The report identified decentralization obstacles, regulatory uncertainties, governance issues, intensifying competition, and the risk of substantial bad debt as key challenges facing the protocol.

Value capture is another aspect underpinning the firm’s optimistic perspective. The report states that nearly 99% of Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue is directed towards repurchasing HYPE, effectively removing those tokens from circulation. Multicoin also noted that Hyperliquid has never sought outside capital and functions without a separate equity layer, enabling the protocol’s economics to directly benefit token holders.

The report estimates that Hyperliquid has generated around $869 million in trailing earnings for HYPE holders. Given a token price of around $63, Multicoin calculated that HYPE trades at approximately 36 times trailing earnings or about 30 times when accounting for revenue associated with Hyperliquid’s collaboration with Coinbase and USDC.

At the same time, technical analyses present a more cautious outlook than the firm’s long-term projection. On the four-hour chart, HYPE is forming a bearish double-top pattern, with a neckline around the $52.7 support level.

If sellers push the token below this threshold and confirm the pattern, the potential downside target could fall to the $28.5 range, suggesting that traders may keep a close eye on technical risks alongside Multicoin’s longer-term fundamental assessments.