Regional Tensions in East Africa Exposed by Refinery Rivalry

East Africa, a region that has been striving for deeper economic integration for over 25 years, has a complex history regarding energy infrastructure location disputes. Uganda uncovered oil in 2006, with prospects of producing an estimated 210,000 to 230,000 barrels of oil per day at peak production.

In 2014, Kenya and Uganda reached an agreement to construct a joint crude oil pipeline from Uganda’s oil fields at Lake Albert to the Indian Ocean. However, the initiative was abandoned in 2016, leading Uganda to opt for a southern route through Tanzania, which forced Kenya to reevaluate its plans.

This year, President William Ruto of Kenya and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni revealed plans for a new East African oil refinery, reportedly to be established in Tanzania by Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote, who is recognized as Africa’s wealthiest individual and the founder, president, and CEO of the Dangote Group.

The proposed refinery initially appeared to strengthen East African unity and sovereignty. Yet, just days later, President Samia Hassan of Tanzania expressed that she had not been consulted regarding the establishment of the refinery in her country.

The Dangote refinery has now been directed to Lamu, a new port in Kenya situated north of Mombasa. While this should have resolved the issue, it did not end the conflict. Subsequently, Uganda and Tanzania signed a memorandum of understanding with commodity trader Vitol Bahrain to create a US$20 billion regional energy hub in Tanga, Tanzania, featuring petroleum storage, refining, logistics, trading, and distribution facilities.

Brendon J. Cannon and Stephen Mogaka have explored East African politics, pipeline dynamics, and security for over a decade. They provide insight into these recent developments.

You studied the regional energy rivalry in East Africa regarding a crude oil pipeline. What transpired?

In 2014, Uganda and Kenya came together to build a pipeline from Uganda’s oilfields to Kenya’s envisioned port at Lamu.

However, the agreement fell apart within two years, influenced by Kenya’s push for its northern route, heightened security concerns, and land compensation disputes.

Ultimately, Total, the French oil giant developing Uganda’s fields, emerged as a pivotal factor by advocating for and financially backing an alternative pipeline that bypassed Kenya entirely, directing it to Tanzania’s port of Tanga. Uganda’s continual anxiety about relying on Kenya compounded the situation.

By 2016, the pipeline project was effectively dead. The Uganda-Tanzania route, now known as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, is reportedly nearing completion, with around 90% done as of August 2026, and the first oil delivery expected in early 2027.

This heated pipeline will transport Uganda’s waxy crude oil from its Lake Albert oilfields to Tanga in Tanzania for export.

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What contributes to mistrust and competitive statecraft in the East African region?

Competitive statecraft in East Africa, particularly between Kenya and Tanzania, is deeply entrenched. It stems from differing post-independence ideologies and, more recently, from conflicting aspirations to become the primary commercial conduit to international markets.

Kenya’s post-independence leaders were disparaged by Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere, who dismissed them as operating a “man-eat-man” society due to Nairobi’s capitalist approach. In retort, Kenyan attorney-general Charles Njonjo labeled socialist Tanzania a “man-eat-nothing” society.

The enduring legacy of mutual distrust continues to overshadow even the gradual improvements in relations between Kenya and Tanzania.

Kenya has long sought to develop its northern transport corridor fully while Tanzania has pursued the enhancement of its central and southern routes. As early as 2016, media outlets described Kenya’s planned port at Lamu and Tanzania’s proposed port at Bagamoyo as contenders in the race to become the most significant harbor in East Africa.

Kenyan transport officials are still considering upgrades to the northern corridor in an effort to counter Tanzania’s growing central corridor and its newly constructed electric railway.

Each country has drawn in landlocked Uganda and Rwanda, and more recently, Uganda’s oil, as the decisive factor in which corridor will dominate. The ultimate prize, however, is a pipeline corridor leading to South Sudan, which boasts proven oil reserves of 3.5 billion barrels, making it the third-largest oil reserve holder in sub-Saharan Africa and the leading oil producer in East Africa.

Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania have all engaged on the issue of the Dangote-backed refinery. Does the Lamu decision signify a shift from past rivalries?

The choice to construct what is proposed as East Africa’s sole refinery in Lamu appears, at first glance, to continue the politics of intrigue.

However, it is important to note that the Tanga concept originated as a collaborative regional initiative: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and others proposed a Dangote-style refinery in early 2026.

Dangote had offered to spearhead its construction if governmental consensus was reached regarding a location.

Ruto’s early support for Tanga was widely misinterpreted in Kenya as favoritism towards Tanzania over his country, raising uncomfortable questions about his intentions before Dangote’s commercial inclination towards the Kenyan coast ultimately clarified the situation. Tanzania’s president’s public reprimand only heightened the hostilities.

Reports suggest that Dangote’s team evaluated Uganda’s oilfields near Hoima, Mombasa, and Tanga before deciding on Lamu based on the availability of ample land suitable for large-scale industrial operations and the presence of a functional deep-water port. Additionally, Kenya’s more robust banking sector was capable of supporting the $16 to $17 billion project’s financing.

Similar to the East African pipeline saga in 2014, the decisive outcome was dictated by an external investor’s commercial considerations rather than regional consensus.

Dangote has no need for East African solidarity. Should one government prove obstinate, he can relocate the project, just as Total once did.

Kenya, having learned from its mishandled pipeline negotiations in 2014, seems to have lobbied more adeptly this time. Reports indicate that it has committed seed capital amounting to KSH 21.5 billion (approximately US$166 million) and invited its neighbors to participate.

Nevertheless, Uganda and Tanzania quickly responded with their own Tanga hub, framed around retaining greater value from regional oil rather than merely exporting crude and bringing in refined fuel.

Uganda, in particular, continues to hedge: attempting to finance its own Hoima refinery while endorsing both Lamu and Tanga.

The rivalry in East Africa has not vanished; it has simply been reshaped into parallel, competing “regional” initiatives.

What is the justification for a regional refinery?

The underlying economic rationale for a refinery is compelling.

East Africa produces almost none of its own fuel despite an estimated 4.7 billion barrels of oil reserves distributed across Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Recent threats and attacks by Iran against shipping in the Gulf this year highlighted the region’s vulnerability to supply disruptions from the Middle East.

A refinery in Lamu would be situated at the terminus of a multi-national corridor: the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport project. This long-term, multi-billion-dollar initiative aims to connect the deep-water port at Lamu with comprehensive road, rail, pipeline, and airport infrastructure extending to South Sudan and Ethiopia.

It would also potentially harness South Sudan’s abundant, higher-quality crude oil (which is still primarily shipped through Sudan), in addition to Kenya’s own land reserves in Turkana and prospective offshore fields.

Connecting this to a refinery, instead of merely a crude export pipeline, would offer Lamu a far more sustainable justification than the previously planned Uganda-Kenya pipeline ever possessed. Whether this vision materializes depends less on engineering capabilities and more on the political and financial dynamics of East Africa.

Stephen Mogaka contributed to this article.

Brendon J. Cannon, Associate Professor, Khalifa University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.